An economist, now seen as a “prophet of boom,” is quite optimistic. He thinks the economic model used by the IMF and World Bank staff is “erroneous.” Economists at the two institutions see a bleak outlook for OFW remittances in 2009, while Villegas predicts the opposite. Of course it is already August, and more than half the year is done, and so far the first half has not been bad. The real test is the next six months to a year.
I’m coming to the view that the economy is not that bad because it was never that good. Before, I was tempted into thinking it was not that good because it was never that bad.
Of late, the US economy (and perhaps the rest of the world as well) appears to be getting earlier on the road to recovery than most pundits have been saying. Possibly it is an effect of human psychology. We seem to get too pessimistic about the most recent crash, just as we get too optimistic just before a bubble bursts.
The above is just an educated guess, not a strong prediction.