This is better than ten zillion books you can buy at the airports. Perhaps it will save sleep and real money.
One thing I can add is that the movement over time of the yield curve can also give an idea of turning points in the stock market; but it is only an idea. When the yield curve “inverts” (when short- term interest rates are at or higher than long-term interest rates), stocks may be in a bubble that could burst anytime.
Alternatively, one can do a simple Simon strategy: just say no when stocks are bubbly. The trick is to know when. The best answer is that a bubble exists when just about every Juan (or Tom, Dick, Harry) talks about how great the stock market is. Usually there is a healthy balance between optimists and pessimists; so bubbles don’t come very often. This means it’s okay to adopt a long-term buy-and-hold rule, EXCEPT that you shouldn’t buy into a bubble.
Hat tip to The Reformed Broker.